David Quammen, the author who famously predicted the COVID-19 pandemic, is sounding a new alarm. He warns that bird flu (H5N1) currently poses the greatest threat for the next global health crisis. While the virus does not yet spread easily between people, Quammen believes the world is “spinning a roulette wheel” every day it remains active in animals.
The virus is currently spreading among millions of wild birds, poultry, and dairy cows. Each time the virus replicates in an animal, it has a chance to mutate. Quammen explains that while a human-to-human version of the virus is currently unlikely, the sheer volume of global infections makes a dangerous mutation more likely over time.
A major part of the problem is large-scale industrial farming. Crowding millions of animals together creates a “petri dish” for viral evolution. These conditions provide constant opportunities for the virus to jump from animals to farmworkers, which could lead to a wider outbreak.
Quammen highlights that human behavior drives these risks. As we disrupt wild ecosystems and demand more animal protein, we come into closer contact with rare viruses. He suggests that lowering the risk requires addressing climate change and rethinking our reliance on factory-farmed meat.
While the risk to the general public remains low for now, recent human cases show the virus can cause severe illness. Experts urge governments to improve surveillance and security to prevent a repeat of the chaos seen in 2020.